THE SPECTER SPECTACLE - AT 7:31 A.M. ET:  Arlen Specter has become a Democrat.  All world history has changed.  Specter, senator from Pennsylvania, faced an impossible primary battle in 2010 to keep his seat.  Better, he apparently thought, to switch parties in a state that's trending Democratic anyway. 

Does Specter have a future?  Consider:  He's a new member of his party, and there are other Pennsylvania Democrats who clearly covet a Senate seat.  They will resent giving up their shot so that this newcomer can walk in and claim their party's nomination.  However, it's widely reported that Specter negotiated for some time over his transfer of allegiance, and you can be sure that one of his key demands was that he receive Obama's support for the Democratic nomination for the Senate next year.  Please remember that the governor of Pennsylvania, Ed Rendell, is the former chairman of the Democratic National Committee.  He knows national politics and the pressures that can be applied.  I suspect that old Arlen will get the nomination.

Can he win in the general?  Party statistics in Pennsylvania say yes.  And others have switched parties in other states and gone on to successful careers.  But Specter's switch is clearly based on perceived personal advantage.  Republicans in Pennsylvania will be motivated to defeat him.  Many independents may be repelled by his selfish maneuvering.  Even some Democrats may stay home.

Republicans will nominate a conservative.  The last pure conservative to run for the Senate, two-term incumbent Senator Rick Santorum, was badly defeated. 

It will be one of the most interesting races next year.  My hunch is that Specter still has an advantage, but stay tuned. 

April 29, 2009